The Paradise Valley Arizona real estate market just finished its 2nd quarter of 2012 and its tilting upwards finally. There are 236 homes that are active on the market, 38 are “active with contingencies.” Most of those “active with contingencies” are short sales with accepted offers, contingent upon bank approval. I am not sure how “active” they are once they have an accepted offer but that is how ARMLS classifies them. There are currently 27 homes pending. Currently there is 1, read that again, one, foreclosure listing in Paradise Valley (list price is $2.4 M). Currently there are 71 homes with a trustee (foreclosure notice). Of these, over 12 are AWC (active with contingencies), 2 are pending, 7 are actively listed without offers, the rest appear headed back to the lender.
In the second quarter (Q2) of 2012 there were 124 closings, slightly down from 2011′s 134, but significantly up from 2010′s 91. This is not unlike the rest of the Metro Phoenix Real Estate Market. Transactions have dropped due to a lack of inventory.
Starting in Jan 24, 2012 there were 296 homes on the market in Paradise Valley Arizona , now there is 236 active homes. A significant drop. But what is very interesting is when one slices it up by price point.
Jan 2012 there were 67 homes under 1.0 million, now there are 32. Jan 2012 there were 103 homes between 1-2 million, now there are 77. So under 2.0 Million, the inventory dropped from 170 to 99 in just under 6 months! That is a 42% drop. Paradise Valley home inventory between 2-3 million was at 61 in Jan 2012 and still is at 61 homes now. From 3.0-5.0 Million, it was 47 and is now 43, so a slight drop there. Over 5.0 million there was 27 in Jan 2012 and now there is 24. So roughly a 10% inventory drop at the top of the market.
The sweet spot in Paradise Valley is under 2.0 million. With the inventory dropping so rapidly there is upward pressure on home priced under $2,000,000 but particularly under $1.0 M. I would expect the inventory to drop in the 2.0-3.0 M inventory next spring and then we will see significant upward price changes occurring through 80% of the price point market. That is particularly evident currently in properties under 1.0 million. As long as demand stays steady as it has, with supply dropping, prices are increasing.
Over all prices in Q2 2012 were up 1.02% from Q2 2011 ($294/sq foot vs $288/sq foot) so the tilt back upward after a 5 year fall has begun.
Prices are up, transactions are down, but inventory is even lower giving buyers fewer homes to choose from. This in turn is driving up prices. Demand is still there but many buyers don’t want to over pay. However the inventory levels may leave them behind if they don’t buy now. Finally its tilting back to a seller’s market again in the less expensive segment of Paradise Valley.
If you have any questions, about listing or buying a Paradise Valley home or estate, feel free to contact me at any time.
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Copyright © 2012 by Carmen Brodeur – All Rights Reserved – Paradise Valley AZ Real Estate Market July 2012